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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Oct 29 1244 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
29 Oct 2014	150	009
30 Oct 2014	140	007
31 Oct 2014	130	006

Bulletin

Solar activity has slightly reduced in the past 24 hours, with three M-class and two C-class flares. Activity mainly originated from Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192). A narrow CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery (first measurement at October 28 20:24 UT), with a projected speed of 388 km/s (CACTus estimate). The CME is travelling to the northeast of the Sun-Earth line. The CME is believed to be associated with activity at the backside of the Sun and as such no effect on Earth is expected. Catania group 88 still has potential to produce strong flares up to the X-level. Due to it's location close to the West limb, a strong eruption may result in a rise of the proton flux. Earth is currently inside a slow solar wind, with solar wind speed decreasing from 450 km/s to currently around 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field has a magnitude of about 5 nT with fluctuating Bz values. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are observed and are expected to continue.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 070, basierend auf 05 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 28 Oct 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	013
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	073 - Basierend auf 20 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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