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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Oct 28 1245 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
28 Oct 2014	165	014
29 Oct 2014	160	006
30 Oct 2014	150	007

Bulletin

Another X-class flare was produced by Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192); an X2.1 flare peaked at 14:47 UT on October 27. Also three M-class and several C-class flares were added to the activity list of this region. No associated CME was observed, nor was there an increase in proton flux. The region retains its area and magnetic complexity and has still high potential to produce additional flares up to the X-level. It is currently located close to the West limb and a strong eruption may result in a rise of the proton flux. The extended filament in the northern hemisphere has the potential to lift off and produce an Earth- directed CME. Earth is inside a slow solar wind, with a speed near 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude reaches values up to 8 nT, with an often southward oriented Bz. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are observed, with a few isolated time slots of active (K=4, measured at Dourbes) conditions. Quiet to active conditions are expected to continue.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 071, basierend auf 13 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 27 Oct 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	188
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	015
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	015
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	083 - Basierend auf 24 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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