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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 Aug 19 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
19 Aug 2015	089	024
20 Aug 2015	090	015
21 Aug 2015	089	008

Bulletin

Solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. There have been a few low magnitude B-class flares and no C-class, or greater, flares. Active Region (AR) 2403 (Macintosh:Cso/Type:Beta) recently rotated into view on the east limb and produced the largest flare, a B4.8 class flare peaking at 05:38 UT on 2015-Aug-19. The region has shown little evolution and appears stable. AR 2402 (Macintosh:Axx/Type:Alpha) has evolved into view and is currently located at N05W45, the region appears stable and small. No evident Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were produced in the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain relatively low over the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed has remained roughly constant over the past 24 hours, around 450 km/s. The total magnetic field has been slowly growing from 5 nT to 9 nT, and the Bz component has been largely negative, fluctuating between +2 nT and -6 nT over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active over the past 24 hours, with the Local K index (Dourbes) reaching 4 and the Kp index (NOAA) also reaching 4 throughout the morning (2015-Aug-19), these conditions were/are probably caused by the last of the high speed stream created by a geoeffective coronal hole, and possibly from the CME/shock front produced at 09:36 UT on 2015-Aug-14, although this was anticipated to reach Earth later today. The continued presence of the coronal hole is likely to cause continued unsettled conditions, but should be passing soon. The arrival of the CME/shock front produced 2015-Aug-14, if it has not already passed, may also enhance geo-activity. However, a glancing blow is expected at most.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 054, basierend auf 11 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 18 Aug 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	089
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	010
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	009
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	041 - Basierend auf 18 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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