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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2016 Jan 19 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
19 Jan 2016	100	012
20 Jan 2016	099	006
21 Jan 2016	098	014

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity remained below C-class level. The currently visible sunspot groups are small and inactive. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed.

Mostly quiet flaring conditions are expected, with only a small chance on an isolated C-class flare. A shock was observed in the solar wind speed on 18 January at 20:55UT with an abrupt increase from just below 300 km/s to 370 km/s, likely marking the arrival at Earth of the faint 14/15 January CME. Since then, solar wind speed has been mostly varying between 350 and 400 km/s. Bz oscillated between -11 and +13 nT as observed by ACE. Some more pronounced negative episodes, with values up to -10 nT, were recorded during the 21-03UT and 06-07UT intervals and again around 09:00UT. Active geomagnetic conditions were recorded during the 00-03UT interval, the remainder of the period was quiet to unsettled. A southern polar coronal hole (CH) extension at -25 to -30 degrees latitude is transiting the Central Meridian (CM).

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, with an active episode possible from the waning effects of the passing CME on 19 January and from the CH high speed stream on 20-21 January.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 067, basierend auf 14 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 18 Jan 2016

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	100
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	004
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	004
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	048 - Basierend auf 21 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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