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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2016 Feb 15 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
15 Feb 2016	110	027
16 Feb 2016	110	019
17 Feb 2016	110	020

Bulletin

Five C flares and two M flares were released by NOAA AR 2497 in the past 24 hours. The brightest flare was the M1.1 flare which peaked at 11:00 UT on February 15. It is not clear yet whether this flare was accompagnied by a CME, since no coronagraph data are available yet. More M flares (probability 60%) and C flares (probability 95%) are expected within the next 24 hours, especially from AR 2497. Solar wind speed varied between about 350 and 450 km/s in the past 24 hours, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field ranged between 2 and 9 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to active (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). Minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5-6) are possible on February 15, upon the expected arrival of the CME from February 11. The expected arrival of the high speed stream associated with a large southern coronal hole may cause active (K Dourbes = 4) to minor storm (K Dourbes = 5) levels on February 16 and 17.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 055, basierend auf 19 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 14 Feb 2016

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	108
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	009
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	053 - Basierend auf 12 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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