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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2016 Feb 18 1239 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
18 Feb 2016	100	021
19 Feb 2016	098	012
20 Feb 2016	094	007

Bulletin

Six C flares were released by NOAA AR 2497 in the past 24 hours, and one low C flare by new region 2503. The brightest flare was a C7.4 flare produced by AR 2497 which peaked at 18:13 UT on February 17. C flares (probability 95%) are expected within the next 24 hours, with a chance for an M flare (probability 45%), especially from AR 2497. A bright CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 18:12 UT on February 17, but is not expected to be geoeffective. The Earth is currently in a coronal hole high speed stream. In the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed measured by ACE has increased from about 520 km/s towards about 620 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has gradually decreased from 9 nT to current values of about 5 nT. Over the past 24 hours, quiet to minor geomagnetic storm levels were registered (K Dourbes between 2 and 5; NOAA Kp between 3 and 6), as a combined effect of the high speed stream and southward excursions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on February 18 under the influence of the high speed stream, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on February 19 and 20.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 039, basierend auf 11 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 17 Feb 2016

Wolf-Zahl Catania	057
10cm Solarflux	100
AK Chambon La Forêt	047
AK Wingst	036
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	037
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	039 - Basierend auf 25 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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