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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2016 Feb 19 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
19 Feb 2016	097	017
20 Feb 2016	095	007
21 Feb 2016	097	007

Bulletin

Six low C flares were released by NOAA AR 2497 in the past 24 hours, one low C flare by AR 2501 and one low C flare by a new region behind the southeastern limb (returning region 2490). The brightest flare was a C2.1 flare produced by AR 2497 which peaked at 5:08 UT on February 19. C flares (probability 75%) are expected within the next 24 hours, with a chance for an M flare (probability 15%), especially from AR 2497 and returning region 2490. ACE solar wind data are indicative of continued coronal hole high speed stream influence. In the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed measured by ACE gradually decreased from about 620 km/s to 560 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field ranged between 2 and 6 nT. Over the past 24 hours, quiet to minor geomagnetic storm levels were registered (K Dourbes between 2 and 5; NOAA Kp between 2 and 5), as a combined effect of the high speed stream and southward excursions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on February 19 under the influence of the high speed stream, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on February 20 and 21.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 047, basierend auf 14 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 18 Feb 2016

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	031
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	033
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	038 - Basierend auf 20 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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