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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2021 Jan 05 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
05 Jan 2021	078	019
06 Jan 2021	078	037
07 Jan 2021	078	011

Bulletin

Solar X-ray flux remained below background (B) level. With no active regions remaining on disc, solar flaring activity is expected to be very low.

There are no new Earth directed CMEs observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below that threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed remained mostly in the 300-350 km/s regime but has been rising in the past hours to within 350-400km/s range. Meanwhile the interplanetary magnetic field has seen a steady build-up over the period to currently over 14nT. The North-South component was variable and did initially not reach significantly below -5nT, though just recently it dipped to below -13.5nT. The magnetic field phi angle indicated the interplanetary magnetic field is directed away from the Sun (positive sector). Solar wind conditions are likely to remain enhanced and continue to enhance further over the remainder of the day as we may be seeing the combined effects of the arrival of the Jan 2 CME together with also a general increase in background Solar wind speed due to the high speed streams from the negative polarity Coronal holes that crossed central meridian January 1 and 2.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 0-2). Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 48 hours with also a possibility for minor storm episodes with the expected possible CME arrival and general increased Solar wind conditions.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 000, basierend auf 06 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 04 Jan 2021

Wolf-Zahl Catania	000
10cm Solarflux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	///
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	000 - Basierend auf 12 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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