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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2021 Jan 06 1237 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
06 Jan 2021	077	023
07 Jan 2021	076	023
08 Jan 2021	076	007

Bulletin

Solar X-ray flux remained below background (B) level. With no active regions on disc, solar flaring activity is expected to be very low.

In the far North-Western quadrant an eruption and EUV wave can be seen in AIA images this morning. An associated CME directed to the North-West can be seen in LASCO C2 images from around 4:24UT but immediately followed by a data gap at 5:00UT, making it impossible to judge the angular width. From STEREO A perspective the CME appears narrow and not very fast (450 km/s). Initial analyses thus indicates that it is not expected to be Earth directed. There are no new Earth directed CMEs observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux just briefly touched the 1000 pfu event threshold and is expected to remain below that threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours, but may later increase if high speed stream conditions persist.

Solar wind conditions were marked by the expected onset of the high speed stream from the negative polarity coronal holes passing central meridian January 1 and 2. Solar wind speed continued to increase from just under 400km/s at the start of the period to currently just under 600 km/s with some peaks reaching over 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a peak of 18nT in the compression region early in the period. Bz was variable peaking down to -16nT also early in the period. The magnetic field phi angle switched into the negative sector (towards the Sun) around 12:55UT. There are no signs of any arrival of the January 2 CME yet. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced and may see a further enhancement with the expected January 2 CME arrival later today. Later tomorrow the high speed stream should start to gradually subside.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active conditions (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 0-4). In the next 24 hours there is still a risk for minor geomagnetic storming as the high speed stream persists and with the chance of the January 2 CME arriving. This is later expected to evolve to unsettled to active conditions as the high speed stream starts to subside.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 000, basierend auf 07 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 05 Jan 2021

Wolf-Zahl Catania	000
10cm Solarflux	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	///
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	000 - Basierend auf 15 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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