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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2021 Mar 11 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
11 Mar 2021	077	008
12 Mar 2021	076	010
13 Mar 2021	076	026

Bulletin

The Catania group 78 (NOAA 2808) remained quiet in the last 24 hours as it produced only a weak B flare. It is expected to continue at this level of activity in the next 24 hours as it appears to be in a decaying phase. The newly emerged Catania group 79 is still in an early stage of development and is not expected to have any activity beyond B-level.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in coronagraph data.

The low latitude corona hole of negative polarity in the southern hemisphere has now crossed the central solar meridian.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux peaked over the 1000 pfu event threshold during its diurnal maximum and may do so again today. The 24h electron fluence reached moderate levels and is expected to drop slowly over the next days.

The solar wind continued to decline and it will remain under slow conditions until the arrival of the boundary crossing late on the 12th March (at the earliest), or the 13th March (most likely). The solar wind speed is below 400 km/s and is expected to slowly continue the decline in the next 24 hours. From 13th March onwards the anticipated boundary crossing and the high speed stream expected afterward will likely increase the magnetic field strength and the solar wind speed to above 500 km/s.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp: 0-2, local K Dourbes had values 0-3) . They are expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase to unsettled to active conditions is expected afterwards due to the expected sector boundary crossing and enhanced solar wind conditions.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 022, basierend auf 11 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 10 Mar 2021

Wolf-Zahl Catania	022
10cm Solarflux	079
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	001
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	002
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	015 - Basierend auf 21 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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