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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Nov 28 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
28 Nov 2023	177	006
29 Nov 2023	173	005
30 Nov 2023	165	004

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low during the past 24 hours. The brightest flare was a C6 from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3500 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 65) that peaked yesterday, 18:53 UTC. More C-class flaring activity is expected with a small chance of an isolated M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A partial halo Corona Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from yesterday 18:48 UTC. It is expected to be geo-effective and arrive on 1 Dec. Another CME associated with a filament eruption can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from 23:48 UTC, yesterday. Based on the location and extent of the filament, it is expected to arrive at Earth's environment early on Dec 1. These two events, together with the possible arrival of a CME reported yesterday, are likely to merge together and cause a strong single effect in the first half of 1 Dec.

Sonnenwind

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained stable during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied from 420 to 510 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was between 3 and 6 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 4 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain in the slow SW regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet globally (NOAA Kp 1+ to 2+) and quiet to unsettled locally (K BEL 1-3) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to be at quiet levels both globally and locally in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 148, basierend auf 21 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 27 Nov 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	215
10cm Solarflux	187
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	008
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	166 - Basierend auf 11 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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