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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Feb 28 1232 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
28 Feb 2024	170	005
29 Feb 2024	168	006
01 Mar 2024	168	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flares was a C5.2 flare with peak time at 09:09 UTC on February 28 from the south-east quadrant of the solar disk (around S19E31). Weaker C-class flares were also observed from NOAA ARs 3590, 3594, 3595 and 3596. There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region, and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. All other regions were stable and have alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. NOAA AR 3586 is now beyond the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

Eruptive signatures (coronal dimming, flare ribbons, and development of a post-eruptive coronal loop arcade) were visible starting around 09:00 UTC on February 28 in SDO/AIA images in association with the C5.2 flare from the south-east quadrant (around S19E31), implying the possibility of an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). No coronagraph images are currently available to confirm the CME occurrence. However, due to the favourable location of the source region, further investigation will be carried out to determine if and when any associated interplanetary CME (ICME) may be expected to arrive at Earth.

Sonnenwind

In the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters tended to return to slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed ranged between 370 km/s and 440 km/s, and the total interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT. The Bz (north-south) component reached a minimum value of -4 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun), with short periods in the positive sector in the afternoon (UTC) of February 27, and in the early morning (UTC) on February 28. Since around 07:00 UTC on February 28, however, gradual enhancements in the solar wind speed and magnetic field intensity have been recorded. They may indicate the arrival of a small solar wind structure, possibly associated with the small negative-polarity southern coronal hole which finished crossing the solar central meridian on February 25 (high speed solar wind stream expected to arrive at Earth on February 29). In the next 24 hours, we expect the solar wind parameters to progressively return to slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions reached unsettled conditions globally (Kp 3) and remained locally quiet (K Bel 2). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3590.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 116, basierend auf 04 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 27 Feb 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	168
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	012
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	120 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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