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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Feb 29 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
29 Feb 2024	182	007
01 Mar 2024	182	008
02 Mar 2024	180	008

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flares was an M1.3 flare with peak time at 18:19 UTC on February 28 from NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta). Several C-class flares were also observed from the same active region. There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region, and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. A new active region (numbered NOAA AR 3597, beta) has emerged on the north-east quadrant of the visible solar disk, around N07E11. Additionally, NOAA AR 3595 has become more magnetically complex (now having a beta-gamma configuration), while NOAA AR 3592 has now a simple (alpha) configuration. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A westward partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME), with angular width of about 140 degrees, was first detected in the LASCO/C2 data at around 17:48 UTC on February 28. The CME originated from NOAA AR 3590 in the north-west quadrant of the solar visible disk, and was associated with the long-duration M1.3-class flare peaking at 18:19 UTC. The plane-of-the-sky speed of the CME was around 500 km/s and may result in a flank encounter at Earth early on March 3.

Sonnenwind

In the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters gently declined towards slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from about 455 km/s to about 390 km/s, and the total interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT. The Bz (north-south) component reached a minimum value of -3 nT. The phi-angle remained in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). In the next 24 hours, we expect slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (Kp 2) and reached unsettled conditions locally (K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3590.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 128, basierend auf 08 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 28 Feb 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	005
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	121 - Basierend auf 12 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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