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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 May 01 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
01 May 2024	124	011
02 May 2024	120	011
03 May 2024	116	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at high levels, with 4 M-class flares. The largest flare was a M9.5-flare, with peak time 23:46 UTC on April 30 associated with NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta) has started to rotate over the west limb. NOAA AR 3660 has decayed into a plage region. NOAA AR 3663 (beta) has emerged on the north-east quadrant of the visible Solar disk. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a chance for an X-class flare.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 06:36 UTC on May 01, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 193 at 05:57 UTC on May 01, associated with NOAA AR 3654. Further analysis is ongoing. Further analysis of the CME seen in LASCO C2 data at 12:36 UTC on April 29, shows a possible glancing blow late on May 03.

Koronale Löcher

A small positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole (CH) has started to cross the central meridian. The long negative polarity CH that passed the central meridian on April 29 has decreased in size and has broken up into two negative polarity high latitude CH. These are no longer expected to impact the Earth.

Sonnenwind

In the last 24 hours, the Earth came under the influence of an ICME. A shock was detected in the solar wind ACE data around 11:34 UTC on April 30. The interplanetary magnetic field increased from 3 nT to 6 nT and the solar wind speed jumped from 380 km/s to 420 km/s. The shock is possibly related to a faint slow CME detected in LASCO/C2 data around 11:00 UTC on April 27. Over the entire 24-hour period. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 363 to 425 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 2 nT and 13 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -10 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. The Earth is expected to be under the waning influence of the ICME in the next 24 hours with enhanced solar wind conditions that are expected to gradually decrease.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally active (K 4) and locally reached minor storm levels (K Bel 5). Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 101, basierend auf 16 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 30 Apr 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	017
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	017
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	087 - Basierend auf 26 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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