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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 May 02 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
02 May 2024	129	010
03 May 2024	125	011
04 May 2024	121	014

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.9-flare, with peak time 14:40 UTC on May 01 associated with NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and is rotating over the west limb. NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta) is the second largest and is responsible for most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3664 (beta- gamma) has rotated over the east limb and produced some minor C-class flaring. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analysis of the CME seen in LASCO C2 data at 06:36 UTC on May 01, shows a possible glancing blow late on May 04.

Koronale Löcher

A small positive polarity low-latitude coronal hole is crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may impact the Earth on May 04.

Sonnenwind

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 3 nT and 13 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -12 nT. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 324 to 407 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (Kp 3 and K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 129, basierend auf 18 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 01 May 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	010
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	010
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	105 - Basierend auf 22 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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