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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 May 23 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
23 May 2024	196	007
24 May 2024	194	011
25 May 2024	192	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

There are six visible ARs on the solar disk. There were four M-class flares in the last 24 hours, from NOAA 3679 (that evolved into beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration). The strongest one was an M4.2 peaking at 02:16 UTC. NOAA AR 3683 rotated over the west limb, but is still producing significant flares (C9.8 at 07:01 UTC). NOAA AR 3685 (beta gamma magnetic field configuration) has also potential for strong flaring activity. For the next 24 hours, more M-class flares can be expected and X-class flares are possible.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth directed CME has been observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

A negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere has developed a low latitudinal extension that traversed the central meridian on 21 May. A possible arrival of high speed steam from this coronal hole could arrive at the Earth (late) on 24 May.

Sonnenwind

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 400 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_BEL up to 2). Similar quiet conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in the past 24 hours. Since some of the regions producing the M-class flaring are close to the west limb, a proton event cannot be discarded in the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 135, basierend auf 15 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 22 May 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	188
10cm Solarflux	196
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	004
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	151 - Basierend auf 21 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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