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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Jun 19 1248 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
19 Jun 2024	197	017
20 Jun 2024	197	017
21 Jun 2024	197	017

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and M-class flares. Two M-class flares originated from NOAA active region 3712: M2.4 flare, which peaked at 11:23 UTC on June 18 and M1.2 flare, which peaked at 12:20 UTC on June 18. A Third M1.2 flare, which peaked at 06:36 UTC on June 19, originated from NOAA active region 3711. There are currently several sunspot groups on the solar disk, with NOAA AR 3711 and 3712 showing the most flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable and a small chance of X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

Several coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph images. Their sources were located on the far side of the Sun, or from a filament in the north-east of the sun. No Earth- directed component was identified for those CMEs.

Koronale Löcher

A large north mid-latitude north coronal hole with negative polarity is crossing the central meridian.

Sonnenwind

Solar wind conditions were enhanced in the last 24 hours due to the the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed range around 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field decreases from around 10 nT to 6 nT and the Bz component varied between -5 nT and 4 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated for the next days. The high-speed stream from the large north mid-latitude north coronal hole with negative polarity is expected to reach Earth in one-two days.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were at unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3, K BEL 3) due to the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Then in about one-two days, active conditions to minor storm may be observed in response of the high-speed stream from the large north midlatitude north coronal hole.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours mild elevation may be observed in response of the fast solar wind condition. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 151, basierend auf 15 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 18 Jun 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	193
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	014
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	133 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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