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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Jun 16 1233 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
16 Jun 2024	172	016
17 Jun 2024	173	013
18 Jun 2024	174	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at low levels, with multiple C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C7.1 flare peaking at 23:23 UTC on June 15, associated with NOAA AR 3712 (beta-gamma-delta). Due to a data outage, no flares are reported between 06:00 and 10:50 UTC on June 16. There are currently seven active regions on the solar disk, with NOAA AR 3712 (beta-gamma-delta) being the most complex one. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable and a small chance of X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 12:11 UTC on June 15. It is most likely associated with a filament eruption observed in SDO/AIA 304 data around 11:20 UTC on June 15, in the south-east quadrant. No impact on Earth is expected. A faint CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 07:36 UTC on June 16 from the south-west limb. It is most likely associated with a flare from NOAA AR 3711 around 06:24 UTC on June 16. The flare class cannot be reported due to a data outage between 06:00 and 10:50 UTC on June 16. Preliminary analysis suggests no impact on Earth, but further analysis is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

The equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole has fully crossed the central meridian. The associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth starting from June 16.

Sonnenwind

Solar wind conditions were enhanced in the last 24 hours as a result of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) arrival reported at 11:05 UTC on June 15. The solar wind speed reached a maximum of around 460 km/s and is currently around 400 km/s. The inter-planetary magnetic field is around 9 nT and the Bz component varied between -10 nT and 8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector. Due to a data outage, solar wind conditions cannot be reported between 06:00 and 10:50 UTC on June 16. Further enhancements in the solar wind may be expected over the next 24 hours due to the possible high-speed stream arrival from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5+) due to the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) arrival reported at 11:05 UTC on June 15. Geomagnetic conditions locally reached unsettled levels (K BEL 4). Mostly quiet to active conditions are expected over the next 24 hours due to the high-speed stream arrival from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 150, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 15 Jun 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	023
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	023
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	147 - Basierend auf 22 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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