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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Jun 17 1242 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
17 Jun 2024	167	012
18 Jun 2024	167	010
19 Jun 2024	167	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and two M-class flares. The two flares were M1.6 flare peaking at 08:04 UTC and at 10:46 UTC on June 17, associated with the most complex sunspot region NOAA- AR 3712 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently several sunspot groups on the solar disk, with NOAA AR 3712 (beta-gamma-delta) being the largest and the most complex one. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable and a small chance of X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed CMEs was identified and observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

A large mid-latitude north coronal hole with negative polarity is reaching the central meridian.

Sonnenwind

Solar wind conditions were slightly enhanced in the last 24 hours due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed showed a slide increase up to 500 km/s for several hours before returning to value around 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field is around 10 nT and the Bz component varied between -3.3 nT and 7.4 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to return to slow the solar wind regime.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were at active levels (NOAA Kp 4, K BEL 4) due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole. Mostly quiet conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 138, basierend auf 14 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 16 Jun 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	018
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	016
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	151 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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