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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Jul 14 1240 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
14 Jul 2024	235	014
15 Jul 2024	230	012
16 Jul 2024	230	004

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours reached high levels with multiple M-class flaring and an impulsive X1.2-flare, start time 02:23 UTC, peak time 03:18 UTC, end time 02:34 UTC on July 14. The X-flare was produced by the largest and most complex active region NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma-delta), which increased the complexity of its underlying magnetic field and was responsible for most of the registered flaring activity. There are currently eleven numbered active regions on the visible solar disc. Isolated M-class flaring was produced by the new region NOAA AR 3751 and high C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3743 (beta) and NOAA AR 3742 (beta). NOAA AR 3744 (beta-gamma) has shown some development, but has remained silent. The remaining active regions have remained mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate to high levels over the coming days with 80% chance for M-class flaring and 30% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions with some small perturbations since around 05 UTC on July 14. The solar wind velocity was in the range of 265 km/s to 375 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field registered a maximum value of 6.9 nT with a minimum Bz of -4.1 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with prolonged periods in the positive sector registered on July 14. The solar wind conditions are expected to register moderate disturbances later on July 14 and July 15 with anticipated high speed stream arrival related to a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on July 10.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions were registered over Belgium. Quiet to active conditions are anticipated for July 14 with low chances for isolated minor storms due to anticipated high speed stream arrival. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for July 15 and July 16.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 221, basierend auf 23 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 13 Jul 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	238
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	182 - Basierend auf 21 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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