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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Sep 08 1256 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
08 Sep 2024	222	010
09 Sep 2024	222	010
10 Sep 2024	222	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours beside de number of complex regions visible on the solar disc, with several C-class flares. The strongest was an C7.2 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3808. The most magnetically complex active regions currently on the disk are NOAA AR 3806 AR 3811, AR 3813 and AR 3815 (beta-gamma). Solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with the possibility of an M-class flare and a chance for isolated X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in LASCO/C2 coronagraph images at 00:36 UTC on September 8. This CME is associated with the filament eruption located at 15 degrees North and 23 degrees West. The projected speed is estimated to be about 600 km/s in the northwest direction. This eruption is believed to be Earth-directed and is currently under analysis. A preliminary estimate suggests an arrival time of September 10.

Sonnenwind

The solar wind parameters reflect a slow wind speed regime. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) ranged between 5 nT and 9 nT. The southward IMF component (Bz) fluctuated between -6.5 nT and +9 nT. The solar wind speed remained around 315-430 km/s. Solar wind conditions are expected to become more enhanced in the next 24 hours due to the September 3 coronal mass ejection, combined with the high-speed stream from the small negative polarity coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on September 3.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally, with some periods of unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K-Dourbes indices of 1-3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours, with possible active periods in response to the anticipated enhancement of solar wind conditions.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has now returned to background levels. It is expected to remain at background levels over the next 24 hours. However, there is a small chance of exceeding the threshold if high-energy flares or eruptions occur.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at normal levels and is expected to stay that way over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 174, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 07 Sep 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	222
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	007
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	164 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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