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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Oct 05 1301 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
05 Oct 2024	285	038
06 Oct 2024	284	082
07 Oct 2024	283	022

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares and 4 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M1.6 flare peaking on Oct 05 at 08:44 UTC (source yet to be determined). A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC 257 (NOAA AR 3842), SIDC 273 (NOAA AR 3844), and SIDC 217 (NOAA AR 3848) have beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and were growing over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate to high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A faint coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 04:24 UTC on Oct 04 (as detected by CACTUS tool), on the W limb. First analysis of this CME shows that it was possibly associated with the filament eruption in the SW quadrant of the Sun. It has a projected speed of abput 550 km/s and a projected width of about 114 degree (as detected by CACTUS tool). It will possibly miss the Earth, but a glancing blow may be possible on Oct 07. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

A small equatorial positive polarity coronal hole (CH) has crossed the central meridian on Oct 05, and the high-speed stream from this CH may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on Oct 07-08.

Sonnenwind

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged from 330 km/s to 430 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 5 nT to 9 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -7 to 7 nT. We expect enhanced solar wind parameters in the next 24 hours due to the possible arrival of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME), associated with CMEs that were observed lifting from the Sun on Oct 01-03.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K_BEL 1 to 3). We expect active to major storm conditions (K 4 to 7) in the next 24 hours due to the possible arrivals of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME), associated with CMEs that were observed lifting from the Sun on Oct 01-03.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 186, basierend auf 13 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 04 Oct 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	291
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	010
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	009
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	219 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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