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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Oct 20 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
20 Oct 2024	161	019
21 Oct 2024	165	022
22 Oct 2024	165	016

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. The largest flare was a M1.7 flare (SIDC Flare 2358) peaking on October 19 at 14:34 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 283 (NOAA Active Region 3854). A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 285 and 288 (resp. NOAA Active Region 3856 and 3859) are the most complex (beta-gamma). Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and M-class flares possible.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Sonnenwind

The solar wind at the Earth is slow. The speeds temporarily increased yesterday evening from around 400 km/s to 470 km/s and is now back around 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 7 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -6 nT. The solar wind speed may become slightly enhanced on 21 OCT, due to the potential arrival of the high-speed stream (HSS).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active globally (NOAA Kp 4) and quiet to minor storm locally (K Belgium 5) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain unsettled to active due to a high-speed stream arrival of the Coronal Hole that crossed the central meridian on OCT 18.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 122, basierend auf 08 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 19 Oct 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	029
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	031
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	135 - Basierend auf 14 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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