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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Oct 21 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
21 Oct 2024	163	010
22 Oct 2024	163	026
23 Oct 2024	165	017

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was a C5.0 flare (SIDC Flare 2368) peaking at 22:35 UTC on October 20 UTC, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 275 (NOAA Active Regions 3846 and 3863). There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3859, beta- gamma class), that has grown in size, is currently the most complex active on the disk but remained quiet. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares probable and a chance of M-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were reflecting slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from values around 390 km/s to 340 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak, below 6 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -3 nT and 6 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days, with a chance of a weak enhancement on Oct 21- 22 due to arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, that started to cross the central meridian on Oct 18.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet (NOAA Kp: 0 to 2 and K-BEL: 1 to 2). Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with a chance of isolated active or minor storm periods due to possible high-speed stream arrival associated with the positive polarity coronal hole.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 163, basierend auf 12 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 20 Oct 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	130 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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