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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Oct 30 1240 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
30 Oct 2024	265	017
31 Oct 2024	267	015
01 Nov 2024	263	006

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at moderate levels. There are eleven numbered active regions on the visible solar disc with SIDC Sunspot Group 273 (NOAA Active Region 3869) and SIDC Sunspot Group 298 (NOAA Active Region 3876) being the most complex ones, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Region 3872) has exhibited some decay and it currently classified as magnetic type beta and SIDC Sunspot Group 296 (NOAA Active Region 3874) has slightly decreased its magnetic complexity to type beta-gamma. Despite their complexity the regions above did not produce any M-class or above flaring. The strongest activity was an M1.1-flare, with peak time 16:33 UTC on Oct 29th associated with the simpler region SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active Region 3873). The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at moderate levels over the coming days with 85% chances of M-class flaring and 20% chances for an isolated X-flare.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A faint and slow partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected by LASCO/C2 to lift off the south-west solar quadrant in the UTC afternoon on Oct 29th. The CME is related to a long-duration large on disk filament eruption, which started in the UTC morning on Oct 29th. The CME has a projected velocity of about 550 km/s and the bulk is expected to miss the Earth, but modelling suggests that a slight glancing blow is possible to arrive late on Nov 3rd. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have been indicative of a mild high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field was mildly elevated reaching maximum value of 8.2 nT with a minimum Bz of -7.7 nT. The solar wind velocity was varying between 396 km/s and 583 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at slightly elevated conditions over the next 24 hours and return to background slow solar wind regime until a possible minor glancing blow arrival late on Nov 3rd.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quite to active and locally over Belgium quiet to unsettled. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with small chances of isolated minor storms. Quiet to active conditions are expected for Oct 31st and mostly quiet to unsettled conditions can be anticipated on Nov 1st.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was has decreased to minor radiation storm levels (S1) following an ongoing proton event. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to decrease bellow the 10 pfu warning threshold in the next 24 hours, pending no new radiation events are prompted by the solar activity.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 215, basierend auf 07 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 29 Oct 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	295
10cm Solarflux	266
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	015
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	230 - Basierend auf 21 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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