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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Oct 31 1238 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
31 Oct 2024	273	013
01 Nov 2024	275	010
02 Nov 2024	275	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at moderate levels. There are ten numbered active regions on the visible solar disk with SIDC Sunspot Group 273 (NOAA Active Region 3869) and SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878) being the most complex ones, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Region 3872) decreased its magnetic complexity to beta-gamma. Two currently unnumbered active regions have rotated on disk in the southeast quadrant. The strongest activity was an M7.2-flare (SIDC Flare 2440), with peak time 20:53 UTC on October 30, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878). The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at moderate levels over the coming days with M-class expected and 35% chances for an isolated X-flare.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A narrow Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, lifting off around 10:15 UTC on October 31, from the northeast quadrant. The CME is propagating mostly towards the north. Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of 640 km/s. Further analysis of the event is ongoing to determine its source region and possible Earth-directed components. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

A northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 74) is crossing the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from the early UTC morning on November 03. An equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 75) has started to cross the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from the UTC noon on November 03.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were enhanced, following the influence of a mild high-speed stream reported on October 30, from a negative polarity coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 7.9 nT. The Bz component varied between -7.2nT and 7.6 nT. The solar wind speed values were between 470 km/s and 647 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at slightly elevated conditions over the next 24 hours and slowly return to the background slow solar wind regime, until a possible minor glancing blow arrival late on November 03 and the probable high-speed stream arrivals from the positive polarity coronal holes, also on November 03.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions globally and locally over the past 24 hours were initially at unsettled levels and then decreased to quiet levels. Mostly quiet to active conditions, with low chances of minor storm conditions pending on further solar wind enhancements, are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has decreased to minor radiation storm levels (S1) following an ongoing proton event. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain at minor radiation storm levels and gradually decrease below the 10 pfu warning threshold in the next 24 hours, pending no new radiation events are prompted by the solar activity.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was enhanced starting from 13:00 UTC on October 30, but has remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 213, basierend auf 09 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 30 Oct 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	248
10cm Solarflux	270
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	015
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	205 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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