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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Nov 03 1246 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
03 Nov 2024	249	009
04 Nov 2024	245	015
05 Nov 2024	240	013

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours with two low M-class flares (SIDC Flare 2472, SIDC Flare 2477) produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA AR 3878) and SIDC Sunspot Group 283 (NOAA AR 3884). A total of 15 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk with SIDC Sunspot Group 217 and SIDC Sunspot Group 273 (NOAA AR 3869) remaining the largest and complex regions, both classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. A few new regions emerged on disc, SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA AR 3883) currently located at S06E66 (beta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 304 (NOAA AR 3882) currently located at N23W55 (beta). Two other regions appear returning from the east limb, one of which is numbered as SIDC Sunspot Group 283 currently located at S06E76 (alpha). The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly elevated. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached a maximum value of 11.4 nT with a minimum Bz of -8.5 nT. The solar wind velocity ranged between 389 and 532 km/s. The B field phi angle was switching orientation between the negative and the positive sector (directed towards and away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated over the next 24 hours with two possible high speed stream arrivals and a possible weak glancing blow CME arrival from late on November 03.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally quite to unsettled and globally reached active levels. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with small chances of isolated minor storm intervals.

Protonenflusswerte

Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued to decrease towards background levels. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to decrease to nominal levels over the 24 hours, although there remain chances for new enhancements related to the current solar activity.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 200, basierend auf 05 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 02 Nov 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	251
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	200 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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