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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Nov 04 1240 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
04 Nov 2024	237	010
05 Nov 2024	240	010
06 Nov 2024	244	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 9 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M3.79 flare (SIDC Flare 2488) peaking on November 04 at 01:40 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883), which produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. This region together with SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878) are the most magnetically complex regions on disk, classified as magnetic type beta- gamma-delta. A total of 13 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 306 (NOAA Active Region 3885) currently located at S10W43 has emerged unto the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 283 (NOAA Active Region 3886) currently located at S06E65 has rotated on the visible disk. Four regions are expected to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, lifting off around 00:36 UTC on November 04 from the north-east quadrant. Further analysis of the event is ongoing.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly elevated. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached a maximum value of 9 nT with a minimum Bz of -6 nT. The solar wind velocity ranged between 402 and 470 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to gradually return to the slow solar wind regime over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally and globally quite to active (Kp 1-4 and K BEL 1-4 ). Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued to decrease towards background levels. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to decrease to nominal levels over the 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 194, basierend auf 11 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 03 Nov 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	241
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	015
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	012
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	214 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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