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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Dec 04 1233 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
04 Dec 2024	180	007
05 Dec 2024	184	007
06 Dec 2024	186	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity has reached moderate levels, with several C-class flares and one M-class flare recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M2.3 flare, peaking at 10:00 UTC on December 4. It was associated with an active region (AR) behind the east limb (S09E89), which is currently rotating onto the solar disk.There are currently eight numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3906; beta-gamma) is the largest and most complex region on the disk but has only produced C-class flares in the past 24 hours. It is expected to rotate over the west limb within the next few hours, along with SIDC Sunspot Group 322 (NOAA Active Region 3905; beta-gamma), that was inactive over the past 24 hours. Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 330 (NOAA Active Region 3916; beta). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and have not shown any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance of M-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

A positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 60) started to cross the central meridian.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected the waning influence of the ICME. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude decreased from 10 nT to 8 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 420 km/s and 500 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -6 nT and 6 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually return to slow solar wind conditions over the next few days.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled globally (NOAA Kp: 2 to 3). Locally, over Belgium, an active period was registered between 18:00 and 22:00 UTC on December 3 (K-Bel: 4). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. There is a small chance that the proton flux may increase in case of strong flaring from SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3906).

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 114, basierend auf 04 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 03 Dec 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	162
10cm Solarflux	185
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	121 - Basierend auf 15 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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