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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Dec 31 1242 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
31 Dec 2024	218	011
01 Jan 2025	212	048
02 Jan 2025	205	016

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours with 8 M-class flares recorded. SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active Region 3936) is the most complex with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and produced the largest flare, an M5.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3139) peaking on December 30 at 16:54 UTC. This region also produced an M3.5 flare (SIDC Flare 3138) peaking on December 30 at 14:46 UTC, but has started to decay. SIDC Sunspot Group 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932) and SIDC Sunspot Groups 351 (NOAA AR 3939) produced low level M-class flares over the last 24 hours. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and X-class flares possible.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronale Löcher

SIDC Coronal Hole 60 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a positive polarity) began to cross the central meridian on December 31.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions reflected a predominantly slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field was stable around 7 nT until 02:30 on December 31 when is increased slightly to values around 11 nT, with a minimum Bz of -9 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 330 km/s and 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). An enhancement of the solar wind speed and magnetic field is expected from late on December 31 and continuing on January 01, due to the anticipated arrival of the CMEs observed on December 29.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions are possible from late on December 31 and on January 01 due to the anticipated CME arrivals.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. However, due to the number of complex regions on disk and the high flaring probability, a possible proton event over the next days cannot be excluded.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 194, basierend auf 07 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 30 Dec 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	241
10cm Solarflux	224
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	007
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	220 - Basierend auf 13 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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