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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Jan 01 1242 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
01 Jan 2025	210	064
02 Jan 2025	202	026
03 Jan 2025	187	011

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with 4 M-class flares recorded. SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active Region 3936) is the most complex with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and produced 3 M-class flares including a long duration M2.7 flare (SIDC Flare 3159) peaking on December 31 at 22:19 UTC. This region is now rotating over the west limb. The largest flare was a M2.9 flare (SIDC Flare 3160), peaking on December 31 at 22:50 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 350 (NOAA Active Region 3938). SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA AR 3939) continued to increase in size, while SIDC Sunspot Groups 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932) and 354 (NOAA Active Region 3942) decayed. A new region emerged in the south east of the disk and was numbered numbered SIDC Sunspot group 357 (NOAA Active Region 3944). This region has a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration but was so far quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and X-class flares possible.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A filament eruption at the disk centre near SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA AR 3939) was observed in GOES-R/SUVI 195 and 305 imagery around January 01 01:00 UTC. An associated faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 02:20 UTC January 01, directed to the south-west and is being analysed to see if it has an Earth directed component.

Koronale Löcher

SIDC Coronal Hole 82 (equatorial coronal hole with a positive polarity) began to cross the central meridian on January 01.

Sonnenwind

From 15:45 UTC on December 31, the solar wind parameters show the arrival of the first halo CME of December 29. The interplanetary magnetic field increased from 9 to 25 nT and the solar wind speed increased from 400 to 475 km/s. From 02:00 UTC January 01, the solar wind speed increased further reaching values of over 550 km/s. After 02:00 UTC, the Bz also turned strongly negative with a minimum value of -22 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to be further enhanced by a possible second CME arrival on January 01, with the CME effects continuing into January 02.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached moderate geomagnetic storm conditions (NOAA Kp 6, Local K Bel 5) between 09:00 to 12:00 UTC on January 01, due to the CME arrival and extended period of negative Bz. Further minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on January 01 and during the start of January 02 before returning to unsettled to active conditions.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. However, due to the number of complex regions on disk and the high flaring probability, a possible proton event over the next days cannot be excluded.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 216, basierend auf 06 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 31 Dec 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	218
AK Chambon La Forêt	033
AK Wingst	017
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	017
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	179 - Basierend auf 12 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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