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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Mar 02 1302 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
02 Mar 2025	146	007
03 Mar 2025	148	005
04 Mar 2025	150	006

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

The solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with only C-class flaring. A total of 12 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The flaring activity was dominated by a new region, SIDC Sunspot Group 424 (magnetic type beta), which emerged in the south-east quadrant, currently located at S18E52. It has produced a C9.5 flare (SIDC Flare 3737) peaking at 23:01 UTC on Mar 01. Two other regions have emerged near the east limb, namely SIDC Sunspot Group 422 (magnetic type alpha) and SIDC Sunspot Group 423 (magnetic type beta). The latter one has exhibited significant growth, but has not produced any significant flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot Group 420 (NOAA Active Region 4009) and SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 4006) remain the largest regions on the visible solar disc, but have been mostly quiet. They are both classified as magnetic type beta. The remaining regions are either simple and/or have been mostly quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with 30% chances for M-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A long filament in the south-east quadrant was erupting in the UTC afternoon of Mar 01. A possibly related south-east coronal mass ejection (CME) is visible in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph data around 18:12 UTC on Mar 01. The CME is estimated to have a projected velocity below 500 km/s. Current analysis suggests only a small glancing blow arrival on Mar 05. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the waning influence of a previously ongoing high speed stream arrival. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, decreased to nominal levels with a maximum value of 5.9 nT and a minimum Bz of -3.6 nT. The solar wind speed has decreased from above 700 km/s towards 500 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to return towards background slow solar wind levels over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for Mar 03 and Mar 04. An increase to active conditions with small chances of reaching minor geomagnetic storm levels might be expected on Mar 05 with any possible glancing blow ICME arrival.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has remained below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours, while the greater than 10 MeV GOES 18 electron flux has briefly exceeded the threshold. The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and GOES 18 electron fluxed are expected to exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours and over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours and increase towards moderate levels thereafter.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 157, basierend auf 17 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 01 Mar 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	016
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	045
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	108 - Basierend auf 08 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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