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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Mar 29 1301 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
29 Mar 2025	161	017
30 Mar 2025	159	027
31 Mar 2025	157	019

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 1 X-class flare and 3 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a X1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3932) peaking at 15:21 UTC on March 28, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 459 (NOAA Active Region 4046). A total of 6 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 455 (NOAA Active Regions 4043) are the complex regions with its beta-gamma magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours with M-class flares expected, and a chance of X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 22:30 UTC on Mar 27. This CME was associated with a S-shaped filament (20 - 25 deg) eruption in the SE (S28 E26) quadrant of the Sun. With the bulk of the mass going strongly SE from the Sun, this CME will possibly miss the Earth. Another partial halo CME was observed in the LASCO-C2 images around 15:24 on Mar 28. This CME was associated with a a X1.1 flare (peak: 15:21 UTC) produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 459 (NOAA Active Region 4046) and some nearby possibly filament eruption. Associated type IV radio emission was detected at 15:14 UTC on Mar 28. A glancing blow from this CME is possible on Mar 30-31. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters were still enhanced with the arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) from the three positive polarity SIDC Coronal Hole 60, 82, and 96. The solar wind speed ranged from 510 km/s to 860 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 2 nT to 7 nT, and the North-South component (Bz) ranged from -5 nT to 6 nT. IIn the next 24 hours, we expect the gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K_BEL 2 to 4). In the next 24 hours, active to moinor storm conditions (K 4 to 5) are possible with the continuous arrival of HSSs from three, positive polarity SIDC Coronal Hole 60, 82, and 96.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, reached above the 1000 pfu threshold level at 14:00 UTC on Mar 28 and started to dropped below the threshold level at 20:20 UTC on Mar 28, it again started to increasse and it is presently above the threshold level. It again dropped below the threshold level from 03:20 UTC to 04:50 UTC on Mar 29, and it is currently fluctuating around the threshold level. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, reached above the threshold level at 14:00 UTC on Mar 28 and dropped below the threshold level at 06:00 UTC on Mar 29. The electron flux is expected to remain around or above the threshold in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at moderate level, and it is expected to be at low to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 097, basierend auf 11 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 28 Mar 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	019
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	020
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	079 - Basierend auf 18 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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