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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Jul 11 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
11 Jul 2025	132	019
12 Jul 2025	136	021
13 Jul 2025	138	021

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C8.9 flare (SIDC Flare 4828) peaking on July 10 at 19:36 UTC, which erupted behind the Suns east limb. A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 522 (NOAA Active Region 4136) is the largest region on disk and has a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. SIDC Sunspot Group 552 has emerged near the center of the disk and has a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Koronale Löcher

Returning SIDC Coronal Hole 104 (low to mid latitude coronal hole with a positive polarity) started to cross the central meridian on July 08 and is continuing to cross the central meridian.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions at Earth became disturbed, due to the arrival of a high-speed stream (HSS), associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 104. The solar wind speed jumped, around 04:50 UTC on July 11, from 337 km/s to 411 km/s, reaching a peak of 470 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 1 nT to 14 nT, with the Bz component reaching a minimum of -11 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed in the next 24, due to the influence of the HSS.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (Kp 1 - 3 & K BEL 1 - 3). Active conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, were above the 1000 pfu threshold until 03:35 UTC on July 11 when it decreased below the threshold. During the next 24 hours, there’s a chance that the electron flux exceeds the 1000 pfu threshold again due to the influence of an HSS. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to return to nominal over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 095, basierend auf 21 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 10 Jul 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	067
10cm Solarflux	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	003
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	003
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	079 - Basierend auf 31 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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