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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Aug 07 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
07 Aug 2025	161	008
08 Aug 2025	159	010
09 Aug 2025	155	031

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been moderate, with three M-class flares and a few C-class flares. The strongest flares were an M2.2 and an M3.9, both associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 588 (NOAA Active Region 4168, magnetic type beta-gamma- delta). The M2.2 flare (SIDC Flare 5067) peaked at 02:32 UTC on August 07 and the M3.9 flare (SIDC Flare 5069) peaked at 11:31 UTC on August 07. There are currently nine numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are SIDC Sunspot Group 588 (NOAA Active Region 4168, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 590 (NOAA Active Region 4172, magnetic type beta-gamma). SIDC Sunspot Group 585 (NOAA Active Region 4167, magnetic type beta) has rotated behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate to high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A slow Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 539) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, starting from around 16:10 UTC on August 06, lifting off the northwest limb. It is most likely a backsided event and it is not expected to impact Earth. A wide CME (SIDC CME 540) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, starting from around 23:50 UTC on August 06, lifting off the northeast limb. It is likely associated with eruptive activity near the east limb and it is not expected to impact Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

The elongated, southern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 123) continues to cross the central meridian since August 06. An northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 124) is currently crossing the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from the UTC morning on August 10.

Sonnenwind

The solar wind parameters (ACE) over the last 24 hours reflected slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from 400 km/s to around 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field decreased from 6 nT to 4 nT. The Bz component varied between -4 nT and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle phi was in the negative sector. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 1 to 2+) over the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at quiet levels (K Bel 2), with unsettled conditions (K Bel 3) between 16:00 UTC and 20:00 UTC on August 06. Mostly quiet conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 2) are expected over the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was over the 1000 pfu threshold between 20:10 UTC and 22:30 UTC on August 06. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 19 remained below the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain mostly below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 153, basierend auf 19 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 06 Aug 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	147
10cm Solarflux	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	008
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	145 - Basierend auf 28 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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