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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Nov 15 1254 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
15 Nov 2025	153	007
16 Nov 2025	153	034
17 Nov 2025	153	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the past 24 hours, with two M-class flares observed. The strongest was an M1.3 flare (SIDC Flare 6082) that peaked at 21:31 UTC on 14 Nov, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274). SIDC Sunspot Group 687, now near the west limb, has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and remained largely stable over the period. It was the main source of all flaring activity. Flaring is expected to remain moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance of an X-class event.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A halo coronal mass ejection associated with the X4.1 flare (SIDC Flare 6063), which peaked at 08:30 UTC on 14 Nov 2025 from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274), shows a plane-of-sky speed near 1500 km/s based on CACTus. A 3D reconstruction places the speed around 1600 to 1700 km/s. Given the source location, a glancing encounter with Earth is expected around midday on 16 Nov.

Koronale Löcher

SIDC Coronal Hole 126 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a negative polarity) first reached the central meridian on November 14 and is now positioned on the eastern side of the Sun.

Sonnenwind

During the past 24 hours the solar wind speed stayed in a moderately fast regime. Speed ranged from about 520 to 660 km/s and is currently near 620 to 650 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field Bt varied between roughly 3 and 7 nT, while the north-south component Bz fluctuated between about -4 and +6 nT without sustained southward intervals. Over the next 24 hours, conditions are expected to remain moderately fast with a gradual decline. A mild perturbation is possible from a glancing blow by the coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 601) early on 16 November, followed by high-speed streams from a corona hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 126, mid-latitude, negative polarity) that may begin to influence near-Earth conditions around midday on 16 November.

Geomagnetismus

Global activity was mostly quiet with a brief unsettled interval; NOAA Kp ranged from 0 to 2. In Belgium, K BEL was generally 0 to 2 with short unsettled periods up to 4. Over the next 24 hours, conditions should range between quiet and unsettled. A glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 601) early on 16 November could lift activity to active and minor storm levels, followed around midday by high-speed streams from SIDC Coronal Hole 126 (mid-latitude, negative polarity) that may prolong active to minor strom conditions with a chance of isolated storm intervals.

Protonenflusswerte

During the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux measured by GOES-19 has decreased below the 10 pfu threshold. Further enhancements remain possible, particularly if the SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274) produces additional eruptions.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 104, basierend auf 07 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 14 Nov 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	118
10cm Solarflux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	004
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	110 - Basierend auf 12 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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