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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Dec 12 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
12 Dec 2025	140	016
13 Dec 2025	138	029
14 Dec 2025	136	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with two M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M2.0 flare (SIDC Flare 6393) peaking at 05:05 UTC on December 12, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 712 (NOAA Active Region 4296, magnetic type beta-gamma). There are currently seven numbered active regions on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Groups 709, 712 (NOAA Active Regions 4294, 4296) are the most complex Groups, with magnetic type beta-gamma, and are currently rotating across the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 723 (magnetic type beta) has emerged in the northeast quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Groups 717, 721 (NOAA Active Regions 4303, 4306) have decayed into plage regions. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

An elongated, northern, negative polarity coronal hole (returning SIDC Coronal Hole 142) has been crossing the central meridian since December 10. An associated high-speed stream may begin to arrive at Earth in the next 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (ACE) have continued to reflect the ongoing influence of an ICME arrival. Speed values ranged between 360 km/s and 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values varied between 1 nT and 16 nT. The Bz component varied between -13 nT and 16 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) angle remained in the positive sector until around 15:00 UTC on December 11, after which it shifted to the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions may be expected over the next 24 hours due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 142.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at unsettled to active levels (NOAA Kp 3 to 4), with an interval of minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5- ) between 18:00 UTC and 21:00 UTC on December 11. Locally, geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to active levels (K BEL 2 to 4), with an interval of minor storm conditions (K BEL 5) between 18:00 UTC and 20:00 UTC on December 11. Further minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions remain possible over the next 24 hours due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 142.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive activity from SIDC Sunspot Groups 709, 712 (NOAA Active Regions 4294, 4296).

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 101, basierend auf 09 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 11 Dec 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	138
10cm Solarflux	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	029
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	025
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	113 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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