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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jan 08 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
08 Jan 2026	133	019
09 Jan 2026	130	040
10 Jan 2026	127	017

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with multiple C-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a C4.4 flare (SIDC Flare 6611), peaking at 05:42 UTC on January 8, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 722 (NOAA Active Region 4334; magnetic type beta-gamma). There are currently six numbered active regions on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 744 (NOAA Active Region 4324; magnetic type alpha) is approaching the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 754 (NOAA Active Region 4336; magnetic type beta-gamma-delta) is the most complex active region on the disk but produced only low-level C-class flares. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A faint coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 620) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 06:24 UTC on January 8, directed toward the southeast from Earth's perspective. The CME is likely associated with a C4.4 flare, peaking at 05:42 UTC on January 8, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 722 (NOAA Active Region 4334), and accompanied by a small coronal dimming. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow cannot be fully excluded. Further analysis is ongoing. No other Earth- directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Solar wind conditions became slightly enhanced over the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field increased to values up to 12 nT, and its southward component reached a minimum of about -12 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 330 km/s and 380 km/s. This minor solar wind enhancement likely indicates the passage of a solar wind structure with an unclear source on the solar disk. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated over the next days, with a chance of a weak enhancement on January 8–9 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from two negative polarity coronal holes (SIDC Coronal Hole 144 and SIDC Coronal Hole 145), as well as a possible ICME arrival associated with the CME that lifted off the solar surface at around 02:00 UTC on January 6 (SIDC CME 619).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels globally (NOAA Kp = 4+, 4- ) between 00:00 and 03:00 UTC and between 06:00 and 09:00 UTC on January 8. Locally over Belgium, active conditions were observed between 00:00 and 03:00 UTC on January 8 (K-Bel = 4). Mostly unsettled to active conditions are expected over the next days, with a chance for isolated minor and moderate storm periods, due to the expected arrival of a high- speed stream from negative polarity coronal holes (SIDC Coronal Hole 144 and SIDC Coronal Hole 145) and a possible ICME arrival associated with the CME that lifted off the solar surface at around 02:00 UTC on January 6 (SIDC CME 619).

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, exceeded slightly the 1000 pfu threshold between 15:15 and 18:30 UTC on January 7 and remained below the threshold for the rest of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 072, basierend auf 04 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 07 Jan 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	005
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	005
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	130 - Basierend auf 13 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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