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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 May 13 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
13 May 2026	108	027
14 May 2026	105	014
15 May 2026	104	019

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C2.3 flare (SIDC Flare 7677), peaking at 06:40 UTC on May 13, which was associated with the returning SIDC Sunspot Group 825 (NOAA Active Region 4436, magnetic type beta). There are currently five numbered active regions on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 860 (NOAA Active Region 4432) is the most complex group with magnetic type beta-gamma and is currently rotating across the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 867 (magnetic type beta) has emerged in the northwest quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

A large, negative polarity, transequatorial coronal hole (returning SIDC Coronal Hole 147) has started to cross the central meridian. The associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth starting late on May 15.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE) initially reflected slow solar wind conditions, with an enhancement observed during the last hours of the period. Speed values ranged between 320 km/s and the current value of approximately 440 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values increased from 5 nT up to 13 nT. The Bz component varied between -7 nT and 13 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the positive sector until around 11:00 UTC on May 13, when it switched to the negative sector. The observed enhancement is most likely associated with the possible glancing blow arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 650) observed at 13:48 UTC on May 10. The association will be further assessed as more data become available. Further enhancements in the solar wind parameters may be possible over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 1 to 2). Locally, geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet, reaching unsettled levels during the last hour of the period (K BEL 1 to 3). Active to minor storm conditions may be possible over the next 24 hours, due to the observed solar wind enhancement, most likely associated with the possible glancing blow arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 650) observed at 13:48 UTC on May 10.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 070, basierend auf 16 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 12 May 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	066
10cm Solarflux	111
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	003
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	059 - Basierend auf 23 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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