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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 May 14 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
14 May 2026	101	010
15 May 2026	098	011
16 May 2026	095	026

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C5.5 flare (SIDC Flare 7689), peaking at 06:42 UTC on May 14, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 844 (NOAA Active Region 4435, magnetic type beta). There are currently four numbered active regions on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Groups 825, 844 and 867 (NOAA Active Regions 4436, 4435 and 4438) are the most complex groups with magnetic type beta. SIDC Sunspot Group 860 (NOAA Active Region 4432) has rotated across the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a small chance for M-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A wide and slow Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 652) was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around 22:24 UTC on May 13, lifting off the west limb. No clear source was identified on the visible disk, suggesting a backsided event that will not impact Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronale Löcher

A large, negative polarity transequatorial coronal hole (returning SIDC Coronal Hole 147) is still crossing the central meridian. The associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth starting late on May 15.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE) reflected slightly elevated solar wind conditions at the beginning of the period, before gradually returning to a slow solar wind regime. Speed values ranged between 390 km/s and approximately 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values decreased from 13 nT to 6 nT. The Bz component varied between -9 nT and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the positive sector. The enhancement was likely associated with the glancing blow arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 650) observed at 13:48 UTC on May 10, possibly combined with a high-speed stream influence from the small positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 159). Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally were unsettled between 12:00 UTC on May 13 and 03:00 UTC on May 14, with NOAA Kp values ranging between 3- and 3+, before returning to quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2). Locally, geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled (K BEL 1 to 3), with an interval of active conditions (K BEL 4) between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on May 13. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 054, basierend auf 12 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 13 May 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	091
10cm Solarflux	103
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	013
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	013
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	068 - Basierend auf 22 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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