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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jun 30 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
30 Jun 2026	199	011
01 Jul 2026	199	007
02 Jul 2026	199	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with two M-class flares identified. A total of 4 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.4 flare (SIDC Flare 8058), peaking on June 29 at 21:40 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 860 (NOAA Active Region 4479). This region, currently located at N16W15, has a Beta- gamma-delta magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. It produced several C-class flares and one M-class flare, and was one of the main flaring regions on the disk. The other M-class flare was an M1.3 flare (SIDC Flare 8063), peaking on June 30 at 01:16 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 899 (NOAA Active Region 4475). This region, has a Beta-delta magnetic configuration and also produced several C-class flares. SIDC Sunspot Group 886 (NOAA Active Region 4478) with a Beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration did not produce any C-class or stronger flares during the period. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A very faint and slow Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed to the north-north-east in SOHO/LASCO C2 on June 29 around 23:12 UTC. The speed in the plain of sky was not above 500 km/s. This CME was associated with the M1.4 flare (SIDC Flare 8058) from SIDC Sunspot Group 860 (NOAA Active Region 4479), peaking at 21:40 UTC on June 29, and with associated dimming activity. Due to the source location of this active region on the visible disk, the CME may have an Earth-directed component. However, given the faint and slow nature of the eruption, no significant impact at Earth is expected.

Sonnenwind

Solar wind conditions near Earth were at slow solar wind levels over most of the past 24 hours, with the solar wind speed below 400 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field below 5 nT and the Bz component ranging between -3 nT and +3 nT. Then, around 11:00 UTC on June 30, a shock-like enhancement was observed in the solar wind parameters, with the solar wind speed increasing sharply from about 330 km/s to about 430 km/s and the total interplanetary magnetic field increasing from around 4 nT to 12 nT. The density and temperature also increased sharply. The Bz component turned southward, reaching values around -5 nT. This shock-like enhancement may indicate the arrival of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) associated with SIDC Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) 678. This CME was observed on June 26 from around 21:12 UTC, with a true speed of about 454 km/s. Further data and analysis are needed to confirm the association and assess the subsequent solar wind structure. Solar wind conditions may remain disturbed over the next 24 hours, with a mild further enhancement possible. After the passage of this solar wind structure, solar wind conditions are expected to return to slow solar wind levels.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet globally and locally, with NOAA Kp reaching 2, and K BEL reaching 3, over the past 24 hours. Following the shock-like enhancement observed in the solar wind around 11:00 UTC on June 30, unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are possible over the next 24 hours, depending on the duration and strength of the southward Bz component. After the passage of this solar wind structure, mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES, remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Over the next 24 hours a proton flux enhancement cannot be fully excluded in case of further significant flaring activity, in particular from the complex regions currently on the visible disk, including SIDC Sunspot Group 899 located in the western hemisphere. but most likly expected to remain at background levels over the next 24 hours

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES, was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. This moderate enhancement is likely associated with the high-speed stream from the coronal hole that affected near-Earth solar wind conditions over the past days. The electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was also at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 133, basierend auf 16 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 29 Jun 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	191
10cm Solarflux	195
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	002
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	150 - Basierend auf 30 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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