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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jul 01 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
01 Jul 2026	206	011
02 Jul 2026	206	010
03 Jul 2026	206	048

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with one X-class flare and several M-class flares identified. A total of 5 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an X1.1 flare, SIDC Flare 8067, peaking on June 30 at 20:50 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 860 (NOAA Active Region 4479). This region, currently located at N16W29, has a Beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration over the past 24 hours. It was the main flaring region on the disk, producing the X1.1 flare and several M-class flares. SIDC Sunspot Group 899 (NOAA Active Region 4475), currently located at S09W65 and has a Beta magnetic configuration over the past 24 hours. It produced an M5.9 flare peaking on June 30 at 12:57 UTC, as well as several C-class flares. SIDC Sunspot Group 886 (NOAA Active Region 4478), currently located at S06W06 has also a Beta-gamma- delta magnetic configuration, but produced only C-class flares. The Beta- gamma-delta regions, in particular SIDC Sunspot Group 860 and SIDC Sunspot Group 886, remain the most active regions on the disk. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A wide halo Coronal Mass Ejection (IDC CME 679) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 from around 21:00 UTC on June 30. In the plane of the sky, the CME was directed mainly northward to north-westward, with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of about 700 to 800 km/s. The CME was associated with an X1.1 flare, SIDC Flare 8067, peaking at 20:50 UTC on June 30, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 860 (NOAA Active Region 4479), located close to the central meridian near N16W15. A Type II radio emission was reported in association with this eruptive event, starting at 20:44 UTC on June 30, with an estimated shock speed of about 1496 km/s. Due to the source region location close to the central meridian, the CME is expected to have an Earth-directed component. The 3D propagation direction, true speed, estimated arrival time and potential geomagnetic impact are still under analysis.

Koronale Löcher

A returning positive polarity polar coronal hole, SIDC Coronal Hole 159, was observed in the southern hemisphere. Its latitudinal extension reached the southern mid-latitudes, up to around S30, and was crossing the central meridian. The associated high-speed stream may reach Earth around July 3, with an uncertainty of about 24 hours. Due to the southern location of the coronal hole extension, the probability of arrival at Earth is low.

Sonnenwind

Solar wind conditions near Earth became disturbed following the shock-like enhancement observed around 11:00 UTC on June 30. The solar wind speed increased from about 320 km/s to around 430 km/s and then remained mostly between 400 km/s and 430 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field increased and remained elevated, ranging mostly between 10 nT and 19 nT. The Bz component showed several southward intervals, reaching values around -11 nT, but was also strongly northward for extended periods. These solar wind conditions are likely related to the arrival of an interplanetary structure, possibly associated with SIDC Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) 678. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly disturbed over the next 24 hours before gradually returning to nominal values. A wide halo CME, SIDC CME 679, was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 from around 21:00 UTC on June 30 and is expected to have an Earth-directed component due to the source region location close to the central meridian. The predicted shock arrival at Earth is July 3. In addition, the high-speed stream associated with the positive polarity southern polar coronal hole, SIDC Coronal Hole 159, may contribute to the solar wind conditions around July 3, although the probability of arrival is low due to the southern location of the coronal hole extension.

Geomagnetismus

eomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active globally and locally over the past 24 hours. The active intervals were observed in response to the disturbed solar wind conditions and southward Bz intervals. Further unsettled geomagnetic conditions are possible over the next 24 hours, depending on the evolution of the current interplanetary structure and the duration and strength of any further southward Bz intervals. The possible arrival of the Earth-directed component of SIDC Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) 679 around July 3 may lead to further enhanced geomagnetic conditions.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES, remained at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at background levels over the next 24 hours. However, a proton flux enhancement cannot be fully excluded in case of further significant flaring activity, in particular from the complex regions currently on the visible disk, including SIDC Sunspot Group 860 near the central meridian and SIDC Sunspot Group 899 in the western hemisphere.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES, was above the 1000 pfu threshold at the beginning of the period, with maximum values around 5.7e+3 pfu. It decreased below the threshold around 18:00 UTC on June 30 and remained below the threshold afterwards. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to decrease to normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 145, basierend auf 17 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 30 Jun 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	216
10cm Solarflux	203
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	025
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	026
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	126 - Basierend auf 28 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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