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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jul 02 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
02 Jul 2026	199	010
03 Jul 2026	196	041
04 Jul 2026	196	013

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with nine M-class flares identified and no X-class flares. A total of 3 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M8.5 flare, SIDC Flare 8087, peaking on July 1 at 23:09 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 886 (NOAA Active Region 4478). This region, currently located at S06W23, has a Beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and was stable over the past 24 hours. It produced the largest flare of the period, as well as an M1.1 flare, SIDC Flare 8094, peaking on July 2 at 00:02 UTC. SIDC Sunspot Group 860 (NOAA Active Region 4479), currently located at N16W42, has a Beta- gamma-delta magnetic configuration. The region is moving further toward the western solar disk, but remains very active and complex. It was the main flaring region over the period, producing several M-class flares, including an M4.2 flare, SIDC Flare 8090, peaking on July 2 at 01:56 UTC, an M3.5 flare, SIDC Flare 8084, peaking on July 1 at 19:43 UTC, an M2.6 flare, SIDC Flare 8082, peaking on July 1 at 14:54 UTC, and additional M1-class flares. SIDC Sunspot Group 901 (NOAA Active Region 4480), currently located at S17W47, has developed into a Beta-gamma magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. This region became more complex and started producing C-class flaring activity, including a C6.3 flare peaking on July 2 at 07:22 UTC. SIDC Sunspot Group 899 (NOAA Active Region 4475) rotated close to the west limb and was no longer among the main numbered sunspot groups on the visible disk. It still produced a C8.3 flare peaking on July 1 at 17:12 UTC from near S09W73. The Beta-gamma-delta regions, SIDC Sunspot Groups 860 and 886, remain the most complex regions on the disk and were responsible for most of the M-class flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

Several Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. A CME was first seen to the north in SOHO/LASCO C2 from 00:06 UTC on July 2. This event was associated with the M3.5 flare, SIDC Flare 8084, peaking at 19:43 UTC on July 1 from SIDC Sunspot Group 860 (NOAA Active Region 4479). A further northern CME signature was detected around 02:24 UTC on July 2, with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of about 573 km/s. This later signature may be related to the M4.2 flare, SIDC Flare 8090, peaking at 01:56 UTC on July 2 from the same region. Due to the source location of SIDC Sunspot Group 860 on the visible solar disk, the CMEs may have Earth- directed components. Further analysis is needed to assess their propagation direction, arrival time and potential impact at Earth.

Koronale Löcher

A recurrent positive polarity coronal hole, SIDC Coronal Hole 159, associated with the high-latitude extension of the southern polar coronal hole, was observed in the southern hemisphere. Its extension reached the southern mid-latitudes and was crossing the central meridian.

Sonnenwind

Solar wind conditions near Earth remained slightly disturbed over the past 24 hours, under the waning influence of the interplanetary structure that arrived around 11:00 UTC on June 30, possibly associated with SIDC Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) 678. The solar wind speed was mostly between 350 km/s and 420 km/s, gradually decreasing during the period. The total interplanetary magnetic field remained enhanced at the beginning of the period, with values up to about 15 nT, and then gradually decreased to around 6 to 8 nT. The Bz component was mostly northward, with no significant sustained southward interval observed. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly disturbed over the next 24 hours. A wide halo Coronal Mass Ejection, SIDC CME 679, was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 from around 21:00 UTC on June 30. The predicted shock arrival at Earth is on July 3 in the first part of the day. In addition, possible the high- speed stream associated with the positive polarity southern polar coronal hole, SIDC Coronal Hole 159, may contribute to the solar wind conditions around July 3, although the probability of arrival is low due to the southern location of the coronal hole extension.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled globally and locally over the past 24 hours, with NOAA Kp and K BEL reaching 3. The possible arrival of the Earth-directed component of SIDC Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) 679 around July 3 may lead to further enhanced geomagnetic conditions, potentially reaching storm levels. The high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 159 may also contribute around July 3, although its probability of arrival is low.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES, remained at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at background levels over the next 24 hours. However, a proton flux enhancement cannot be fully excluded in case of further significant flaring activity, in particular from the complex regions currently on the visible disk, including SIDC Sunspot Groups 860 and 886 in the western hemisphere.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 122, basierend auf 15 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 01 Jul 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	188
10cm Solarflux	201
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	018
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	019
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	148 - Basierend auf 26 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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