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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jul 08 1238 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
08 Jul 2026	109	028
09 Jul 2026	107	046
10 Jul 2026	105	032

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. The largest flare was a M4.0 flare (SIDC Flare 8167) peaking on Jul 07 at 14:19 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 910 (NOAA Active Region 4482). A total of 5 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 910 (NOAA Active Region 4482) is the most complex group with its Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, and it has produced a M-class flare in the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, possibly M-class flares and a low chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A M4.0 flare (SIDC Flare 8167) occurred with a peak time around 14:19 UTC on Jul 07, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 910 (NOAA Active Region 4482). Associated ejecta was observed in SDO/AIA 304Å and 193Å images, and Type II radio emissions were also detected during the flaring activity. The associated coronal mass ejections (CME) may possibly have Earth directed components. Further analysis will be carried out once the corresponding LASCO coronagraph images are available. Another wide CME (~115 deg) on E limb was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 22:24 on Jul 07. This was possible associated to a filament eruption on NE around 22:00 UTC on Jul 07. First analysis shows that a glancing blow associated with this CME is possible at Earth on Jul 10-11. No other Earth- directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Koronale Löcher

SIDC Coronal Hole (CH) 170, spanning 10 S - 25 N (negative polarity), has crossed the central meridion on Jul 07. The high-speed streams from this CH is expected to enhance the solar wind environment near Earth during Jul 09-10.

Sonnenwind

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 360 km/s and 445 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 5 nT and 9 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -8 and 2 nT. In the next 24 hours, enhanced solar wind parameters are expected with the arrival of high speed streams from the SIDC Coronal Hole 170 (equatorial and negative polarity) that started to cross the central meridian on Jul 06.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3) in the past 24 hours. We expect active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6) in the next 24 hours, with the arrival of high speed streams from the SIDC Coronal Hole 170 (equatorial and negative polarity) that started to cross the central meridian on Jul 06.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, remained above the 1000 pfu threshold level until 02:00 UTC and 01:20 UTC on Jul 08, respectively, and is currently below the threshold level. It may again exceed the threshold level in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 081, basierend auf 16 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 07 Jul 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	076
10cm Solarflux	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	005
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	004
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	059 - Basierend auf 26 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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