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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jul 09 1237 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
09 Jul 2026	117	035
10 Jul 2026	115	025
11 Jul 2026	111	021

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 2 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M1.5 flare (SIDC Flare 8174) peaking on Jul 08 at 17:56 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 910 (NOAA Active Region 4482). A total of 5 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 910 (NOAA Active Region 4482) is the most complex group with its Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configurations, and it has produced all M-class flares over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, possibly M-class flares and a low chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Koronale Löcher

SIDC Coronal Hole (CH) 171, spanning 30 S - 20 S (very small, negative polarity) crosses the central meridian on July 09. The high-speed streams from this CH may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on Jul 12.

Sonnenwind

Earth was predominantly within the slow solar wind regime in the past 24 hours. However, the solar wind parameters are slightly enhanced now, which is possibly due to the arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) from the SIDC Coronal Hole (CH) 170 (equatorial and negative polarity) that started to cross the central meridian on Jul 06. The solar wind speed ranged between 330 km/s and 475 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 13 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -9 and 9 nT. In the next 24 hours, enhanced solar wind parameters are expected with the further arrival of HSSs from the same CH.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4). We expect active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6) in the next 24 hours, with the arrival of high speed streams from the SIDC Coronal Hole 170 (equatorial and negative polarity) that started to cross the central meridian on Jul 06.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 satellite, increased and exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold level from 17:00 UTC to 22:30 UTC on Jul 08. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-19 satellite, remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The electron flux may exceed the threshold level again in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 083, basierend auf 19 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 08 Jul 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	109
10cm Solarflux	116
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	016
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	016
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	083 - Basierend auf 31 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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