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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jul 15 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
15 Jul 2026	099	007
16 Jul 2026	098	008
17 Jul 2026	099	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity has been low over the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C3.9 flare (SIDC Flare 8201) from beyond the west limb, peaking at 12:39 UTC on July 14. There are currently two numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 910 (NOAA Active Region 4482, magnetic type beta). SIDC Sunspot Group 912 (NOAA Active Region 4487) has decayed into plage. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with a chance for C-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 688) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, lifting off from the southwest limb starting from 03:22 UTC on July 15. It is most likely associated with a prominence eruption over the southwest limb and it is not expected to impact Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

A northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 174) is crossing the central meridian. A mild high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from July 18.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (SOLAR-1 and ACE) reflected the possible impact of a glancing blow (associated with SIDC CME 686), combined potentially with a high-speed stream from the southern, positive polarity coronal holes (SIDC Coronal Holes 172 and 173). The solar wind speed increased from 350 km/s to around 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 14 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum of -8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle phi was initially negative and has switched to positive since 18:00 UTC on July 14. Mostly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, due to the ongoing influence of the high-speed stream.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally were initially quiet during the past 24 hours, increasing to active levels (NOAA Kp 4- ) between 03:00 UTC and 06:00 UTC on July 15. Geomagnetic conditions locally were initially quiet to unsettled (K Bel 2 to 3), increasing to active levels (K Bel 4) between 06:00 UTC and 08:00 UTC. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 2 to 3) are expected over the next 24 hours, with a chance for isolated active intervals, due to the ongoing influence of the high-speed stream.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold during the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was above the 1000 pfu threshold between 17:20 UTC and 23:35 UTC on July 14. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 19 was enhanced but remained below the 1000 pfu threshold during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and it is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 027, basierend auf 27 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 14 Jul 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	038
10cm Solarflux	100
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	011
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	010
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	039 - Basierend auf 32 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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