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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jul 14 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
14 Jul 2026	100	010
15 Jul 2026	099	020
16 Jul 2026	098	008

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity has been low over the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C1.5 flare (SIDC Flare 8200) peaking at 09:56 UTC on July 14, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 910 (NOAA Active Region 4482, magnetic type alpha). There are currently three numbered active regions on the solar disk, all with alpha magnetic configuration. SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485) has rotated behind the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 914 and SIDC Sunspot Group 915 (NOAA Active Region 4448) have decayed into plage. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a small chance for M-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 687) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, lifting off from the southeast limb starting from 19:36 UTC on July 13. It is likely a backsided event that is not expected to impact Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (SOLAR-1 and ACE) reflected mostly slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from 430 km/s to around 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was between 5 nT and 10 nT. The Bz component varied between -6 nT and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle phi was predominantly in the negative sector. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. There is a chance for enhanced conditions in case of high- speed stream arrivals from the southern, positive polarity coronal holes (SIDC Coronal Holes 172 and 173) and a late glancing blow arrival associated with SIDC CME 686.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly quiet (NOAA Kp 2- to 2), with an interval of active conditions (NOAA Kp 4- ) between 21:00 UTC on July 13 and 00:00 UTC on July 14. Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at unsettled levels (K Bel 3) until 01:00 UTC on July 14, decreasing then to quiet (K Bel 1 to 2). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 2 to 3) are expected over the next 24 hours. There is with a chance of isolated active or minor storm intervals (NOAA Kp 4 to 5), in case of high-speed stream arrivals from the southern, positive polarity coronal holes (SIDC Coronal Holes 172 and 173) and a late glancing blow arrival associated with SIDC CME 686.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold during the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was above the 1000 pfu threshold between 15:00 UTC and 23:10 UTC on July 13. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 19 was above the 1000 pfu threshold between 13:00 UTC and 18:45 UTC on July 13. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and it is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 037, basierend auf 23 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 13 Jul 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	059
10cm Solarflux	103
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	010
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	011
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	044 - Basierend auf 33 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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