Viendo archivo del lunes, 12 mayo 1997
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1997 May 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 132 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 MAY 1997IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AT 12/0455Z, REGION 8038
(N21W19), A STABLE TWO SPOT 'HSX' GROUP, PRODUCED A LONG DURATION
C1/1F FLARE WITH AN ASSOCIATED DARK SURGE ON THE DISK AND TYPE II
AND TYPE IV SWEEPS. IN ADDITION, SOHO-LASCO INDICATED AN EARTH
DIRECTED CME CONNECTED WITH THIS EVENT. REGION 8038 REMAINS THE ONLY
ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
REGION 8038.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH ACTIVE
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON DAY THREE IN CONJUNCTION WITH TODAY'S FLARE AND
CME EVENTS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 MAY a 15 MAY
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 MAY 072 Previsto 13 MAY-15 MAY 073/074/074 Media de 90 Días 12 MAY 074
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAY 008/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAY 004/004 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAY-15 MAY 010/010-015/012-025/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 MAY a 15 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 60% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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