Viendo archivo del lunes, 24 noviembre 1997
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1997 Nov 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 328 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 NOV 1997IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 24/1950Z. SOON ANALYSTS WERE
OBSERVING THE SUN DURING THE EVENT AND THEY DID NOT OBSERVE ANY
ENHANCEMENT IN CURRENT DISK REGIONS. OLD REGION 8103 IS DUE TO
RETURN AT THE NORTHEAST LIMB IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF AND THIS
COULD BE THE SOURCE OF THE M1. REGION 8103 WAS GROWING AT WEST LIMB
TRANSIT AND RECENT SPACE-BASED IMAGES SHOW ENHANCED EMISSION OVER
THE NORTHEAST LIMB. REGION 8108 (N20W65) PRODUCED A C3/1F AT
24/0400Z. THIS REGION DISPLAYED DECAY AND CONTINUED REDUCTION OF
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. OTHER DISK REGIONS SHOWED LITTLE EVOLUTION.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8108 SHOULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS
BUT AT A DECREASING FREQUENCY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE FLARE
POTENCY OF A REGION BEHIND THE LIMB. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ARGUES
FOR OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NEAR 24/1200Z, SOLAR
WIND VELOCITY DROPPED TO NEAR 450 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME HIGH DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 NOV a 27 NOV
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 NOV 103 Previsto 25 NOV-27 NOV 103/107/105 Media de 90 Días 24 NOV 092
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 NOV 052/060 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 NOV 007/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 NOV-27 NOV 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 NOV a 27 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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