Viendo archivo del sábado, 9 mayo 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 May 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 129 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 MAY 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO HIGH LEVELS. AN M7 X-RAY
FLARE WAS DETECTED AT 09/0340UT. A MAJOR TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP, A 210
SFU TENFLARE, AND A CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) ACCOMPANIED THE
FLARE. THE CME WAS NOT EARTH-DIRECTED. OLD REGION 8210, NOW A DAY
AND A HALF BEYOND THE WEST LIMB, WAS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THE FLARE.
REGION 8214 (N27W74) PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES AND SHOWED
LITTLE CHANGE IN SIZE OR SPOT NUMBER, BUT ANALYSIS WAS DIFFICULT DUE
TO LIMB PROXIMITY. REGION 8218 (S19W34) WAS STABLE. REGION 8213
(S22W89) PRODUCED AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE (VERTICAL EXTENT 0.3 SOLAR
RADII) AS IT CROSSED THE WEST LIMB. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8214 AND 8218 PROVIDE A FAIR CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON ENHANCEMENT FOLLOWED THE M7 FLARE. IT BEGAN NEAR 09/0600UT
AND GRADUALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLUXES WERE NEAR EVENT
THRESHOLD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN
10 MEV PROTON FLUX WILL LIKELY REACH EVENT THRESHOLD EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE TO BACKGROUND LEVEL.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 MAY a 12 MAY
| Clase M | 50% | 40% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 MAY 111 Previsto 10 MAY-12 MAY 110/104/100 Media de 90 Días 09 MAY 107
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAY 024/020 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAY 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAY-12 MAY 010/010-012/010-012/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 MAY a 12 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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